Chinese Submarine Warfare: Natural Evolution or Game-Changing Revolution?

Source: Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
Authors: Commander Edward Black and Dr. Sidharth Kaushal
Date: 16 October 2025
Read Time: 13 minutes

Overview

China’s submarine capabilities, particularly those of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), are advancing steadily, closing the gap with the United States in what is commonly termed an undersea arms race. While the US retains a technological lead, China’s improvements in nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) detection capabilities present a significant challenge to US maritime dominance, especially within the strategically critical first island chain in the Pacific.

Key Developments in Chinese Submarine Warfare

Diesel-Electric Submarine Superiority

• China operates about 48 diesel-electric attack submarines (SSKs).
• Nearly half are equipped with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems—Stirling engines on Type 039 Yuan-class submarines.
• These submarines feature quieter operation and enhanced underwater endurance compared to older designs and outperform Russian conventional submarines lacking AIP.
• These vessels are well-suited to operations close to China’s coast and contested maritime zones.

Gradual Enhancements in Nuclear Submarines

• Early Chinese SSNs, like the Type 093A, lagged behind Western and Russian models in stealth and reactor efficiency.
• Original designs showed weaknesses such as limited space for advanced sound isolation and noisy hydrodynamic features, making them easier to detect.
• Progressive upgrades have addressed some issues: incorporation of airbag-based isolation, redesigned sail for reduced drag, and pump jet propulsion in Type 093B.
• Acquisition of Russian Kilo-class submarines in the early 2000s helped China reverse-engineer and improve pneumatic mounts.

The Next-Generation SSN: Type 095

• Projected to be about 1300 tonnes heavier than Type 093, aligning it closer to US Virginia and Russian Yasen class submarines in size and capability.
• Based on a more powerful KLT-40S reactor derived from Russian designs, allowing higher speeds and greater onboard sound isolation.
• Features include a single-hull design, vertical launch system (VLS), and capacity for advanced sensors such as towed arrays.
• Progress in turboelectric propulsion promises quieter submarine operations by eliminating noisy mechanical gear reductions.
• Though improved, it still trails Russia’s latest monoblock reactor designs, indicating China remains one generation behind in reactor technology.

Advances in Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBNs)

• Since the 1980s, China has fielded SSBNs starting with the noisy Type 092 Xia-class.
• The Type 094 Jin-class (SSBN) has improved stealth but remains noisier than US and UK counterparts.
• Newer Type 094A models show further noise reduction, indicating steady enhancement in undersea nuclear deterrence.
• The JL-2 missile onboard Type 094 SSBNs has an estimated range of 7,000 km, limiting reach towards US territory mainly to Alaska and Hawaii.
• Introduction of the JL-3 missile, reportedly with over 10,000 km range and multiple warheads, increases the strategic reach to much of the US west coast without leaving Chinese littoral waters.

Strategic Implications and Challenges

• Maritime Deterrence and Leverage: Enhanced Chinese SSBNs, combined with growing ASW capabilities, could provide Beijing with greater leverage in geopolitics, particularly regarding Taiwan’s reunification efforts.
• Lack of Arms Control: Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, former UK Chief of Defence Staff, highlights the absence of formal US-China arms control agreements as a critical gap in nuclear stability.
• Shift in Defence Policy: China is transitioning from a model prioritizing quantity to focusing on the quality and efficiency of its weapons systems across multiple domains.

Conclusion

China’s submarine forces are evolving through impressive but incremental improvements that are gradually closing the capability gap with the US. Although not yet revolutionary, these developments—from improved diesel-electric subs with AIP, through better nuclear submarines, to longer-range SSBN deterrents—signal a strategic shift requiring close attention from Western military planners. Ongoing advancements in reactor technology, propulsion, quieter hull designs, and missile range place China on course to emerge as a formidable undersea power capable of contesting regional dominance and complicating US strategic calculations in the Indo-Pacific.

For Further Reading and Updates

• Subscribe to RUSI’s Military Sciences Newsletter for detailed analyses and expert commentary on global maritime security trends, including submarine capabilities.
• Follow developments in anti-submarine warfare technology and strategic arms control dialogues to monitor the evolving dynamics between US and Chinese naval forces.

Image Credit: Associated Press / Alamy Stock – China’s Long March 3 nuclear submarine docked at Qingdao seaport, Shandong Province (2009).

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